Analyzing Box Office Prediction For Godzilla: King Of The Monsters


Back in January 2014, there was an article on Forbes posted by John Furrier that he predicted Godzilla to be a major flop. His analysis was that the majority of monster movies bomb listing examples such as Tri-Star's GODZILLA (98), King Kong (2005), and Pacific Rim. It's easy to just list them, but what the author failed to mention was the budget for these movies and that most of these movies did not financially bomb as hard as he makes them out to be.


GODZILLA (98): Budget: $130 mil Worldwide gross: $379 mil


King Kong (05): Budget: $207 mil Worldwide gross: $550 mil


Pacific Rim: Budget: $190 mil Worldwide gross: $411 mil


This proved that monster movies were not as much of a train wreck as they were made out to be. Even Pacific Rim did pretty good despite making second place in the box office. We will come to find out months later that Godzilla (14) was a huge success opening with $93 million and closing with a world wide total of $529 million.


Now, fast forward to the present and Godzilla: King Of The Monsters is just around the corner from being released. There has been nothing, but positive opinions from people on social media. Perhaps even generating the same amount of excitement as The Avengers: End Game. A website called Box Office Pro, estimates that Godzilla: King Of The Monsters is going to make only $40 - $60 million on opening weekend. This sounds like a really low number to predict. The author of the article, Shawn Robbins, gives his reasons in a pros and cons list.

PROS:

  • The previous film bowed to an excellent $93.2 million in May 2014, reviving the franchise among domestic fans.

  • Big-budget monster flicks have enjoyed a mini-resurgence in popularity in recent years thanks additionally this film’s in-universe predecessor, Kong: Skull Island ($61 million opening), Rampage ($35.8 million), and the Pacific Rim films ($37.3 million and $28.1 million, respectively).

  • The promise of a connection to Kong — leading up to next year’s anticipated Godzilla vs. Kong — should serve to entice fans.

CONS:

  • On a crowded weekend with a variety of films opening, it could be difficult for this sequel to attract the kind of widespread appeal enjoyed by Godzilla (2014) and Skull Island, which had notably less competition to face.

  • Although Skull Island reception proved more positive, the 2014 Godzilla divided audiences and managed an underwhelming 2.15x multiple from its opening to finish at $200.7 million domestically.

  • As the Godzilla/Kong shared universe goes, we expect diminished returns with this sequel based on current buzz.

Shawn Robbins recognized that the first movie in 2014 did well, there is a resurgence for monster movies being popular, and that the movie leads up to next year's movie, Godzilla vs Kong. Yet, he believes that weekend is too crowded for Godzilla: King Of The Monsters to get the same appeal that Godzilla (14) and Kong: Skull Island made, the 2014 movie divided the audience on opinions, and that this cinematic universe will under perform based on the "current buzz" (source please).


First of all, the only movies coming out on Memorial Day other than Godzilla: King Of The Monsters is Rocketman and Ma. I highly doubt that these two movies are even a competition for Godzilla: King Of The Monsters. Will they make revenue that weekend? Of course, but even a movie about Elton John is not going to sing his way to victory in the box office. Even the other movies for May such as Aladdin, Brightburn, John Wick: Chapter 3, and Detective Pikachu are not going to stand up as high as Godzilla: King Of The Monsters. Aladdin is not receiving very good opinions on how the movie looks and John Wick: Chapter 3 is just not popular to hold its own against a Godzilla movie.


Brightburn and Detective Pikachu may be the only competition Godzilla has for that month. Since Detective Pikachu has Deadpool actor, Ryan Reynolds, voicing Pikachu it will bring in both fans of the Pokemon games and fans of the character, Deadpool. Yet, Detective Pikachu is made by Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures, the same two companies that made Godzilla: King Of The Monsters. So I am sure that Warner Bros. would not want Detective Pikachu competing with another one of their movies and that they are confident that Godzilla will do better. Brightburn has generated some excitement as well being seen as a horror version of a Superman origin story with an evil kid Superman as the villain. So Brightburn may pull in some comic book fans for this movie, but it is not heavily marketed. There are still a bunch of people who have never heard of Brightburn. Why go see Brightburn when I could go see Detective Pikachu? Also, it's a horror movie. Horror movies tend to do only okay making around $35 - $40 million on opening weekend with the exception of IT making $123 million and A Quiet Place making $50 million on their opening weekend. So Brightburn isn't much of a competition unless the movie becomes one of those exceptional horror flicks. You know what? Let's throw The Avengers: End Game into the mix as well. There is no doubt that on opening weekend End Game will make butt-loads of money, but it opens up on the last weekend of April. By the time Godzilla: King Of The Monsters is released, the dust for End Game would have settled down and ticket sales will start dwindling. Fans of The Avengers would have already seen the movie five times before Godzilla: King Of The Monsters is released. So no, Memorial Day weekend will not be crowded at all for Godzilla: King Of The Monsters.